* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 78 79 76 68 61 49 39 30 22 17 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 78 79 76 68 61 49 39 30 22 17 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 70 69 65 60 54 48 42 36 30 25 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 8 9 9 11 5 7 2 3 5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 51 46 26 53 51 60 46 26 116 162 218 218 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.8 24.7 23.8 22.9 21.7 21.0 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 135 133 128 122 110 101 92 79 72 71 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 75 75 70 70 67 61 59 57 56 53 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 22 22 21 20 18 18 15 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 17 19 26 27 35 30 37 32 34 40 40 200 MB DIV 84 59 63 45 44 -20 -3 -4 8 -2 -11 -18 -8 LAND (KM) 699 717 745 770 798 775 791 834 909 1035 1176 1314 1447 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.6 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.4 113.2 115.3 117.3 119.3 121.5 124.1 126.3 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -6. -12. -22. -32. -41. -49. -54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 9. 6. -2. -9. -20. -31. -40. -48. -53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY