* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/19/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 60 58 54 52 47 41 36 32 26 20 V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 60 58 54 52 47 41 36 32 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 59 55 52 47 44 42 42 42 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 24 16 19 18 31 29 14 10 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 232 235 210 210 187 194 225 242 249 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 21.7 20.2 17.8 16.4 11.0 11.4 12.1 9.7 7.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 89 84 78 76 71 71 70 68 66 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 80 77 73 72 69 68 68 66 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -52.3 -50.4 -47.2 -44.5 -43.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 54 56 53 52 53 67 71 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 20 22 23 23 22 20 21 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 1 -8 0 5 83 122 181 196 200 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 55 68 70 59 17 31 19 -16 -51 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 813 764 774 840 945 1325 1284 1074 959 1048 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 41.8 43.3 45.4 47.4 52.6 57.5 61.4 65.0 67.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 46.4 44.5 42.4 40.2 35.3 29.5 23.5 17.0 9.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 23 25 28 30 27 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 21 CX,CY: 12/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -25. -29. -32. -35. -35. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 21. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -13. -17. -23. -26. -31. -37. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -5. -7. -11. -13. -18. -24. -29. -33. -39. -45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED