* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE AL032008 07/19/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 36 42 43 42 39 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 36 42 43 42 39 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 40 40 39 37 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 14 9 6 8 5 5 20 33 26 33 27 SHEAR DIR 2 27 51 47 68 21 331 148 215 182 197 209 230 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.0 25.9 26.0 24.3 20.7 19.2 17.3 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 121 121 120 113 113 114 101 83 78 74 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 101 101 100 96 95 97 86 74 71 69 67 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 7 10 8 10 6 6 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 35 37 38 40 45 44 49 45 45 47 48 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -105 -93 -93 -112 -91 -60 -31 18 34 39 17 -24 -32 200 MB DIV -2 -12 -30 -24 -28 6 -4 16 39 54 22 55 30 LAND (KM) 76 64 80 50 39 37 162 309 340 380 291 262 244 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.6 34.1 35.0 36.3 37.5 38.8 40.1 41.5 43.0 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 79.0 78.5 77.9 77.3 75.8 74.0 71.7 69.1 66.4 63.2 60.0 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 14. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 19. 18. 15. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 18. 17. 14. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 THREE 07/19/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 THREE 07/19/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY