* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/19/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 42 51 60 72 74 78 77 76 70 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 42 51 60 40 45 49 47 47 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 35 42 50 56 59 61 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 5 6 8 0 1 1 12 12 21 17 19 SHEAR DIR 279 303 329 248 299 281 288 109 333 339 336 355 340 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.2 27.7 28.0 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 142 142 148 140 133 137 145 143 140 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 138 140 139 143 133 124 126 131 127 121 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 72 68 66 67 67 68 71 71 70 65 68 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 12 13 9 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 48 44 40 43 30 23 0 14 -19 -3 -12 200 MB DIV 58 55 77 67 17 43 14 54 30 53 6 12 -20 LAND (KM) 300 243 260 314 260 268 55 -46 171 415 380 232 107 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 18.3 19.5 20.9 22.5 24.3 25.7 26.8 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.4 77.9 79.4 80.8 82.1 84.7 86.9 89.0 90.7 92.2 93.4 94.7 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 77 85 60 66 90 62 9999 16 31 40 49 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 31. 41. 45. 49. 47. 47. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 30. 42. 44. 48. 47. 46. 40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY