* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/19/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18 19 24 V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 22 21 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 4 3 7 4 7 2 7 9 12 19 18 SHEAR DIR 211 246 288 190 210 219 191 195 170 223 227 240 225 SST (C) 23.1 23.2 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.6 24.9 25.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 98 98 99 101 103 107 110 111 114 120 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 40 40 36 36 38 38 36 39 36 38 34 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 5 5 4 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 41 33 44 44 32 18 3 0 -4 -22 -32 200 MB DIV -18 -26 -23 -10 -12 -22 -14 -8 -13 -4 -10 -16 0 LAND (KM) 1917 2031 2146 2177 2052 1794 1496 1203 926 634 362 200 338 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.8 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.8 133.0 134.2 135.4 137.9 140.8 143.7 146.5 149.5 152.6 155.6 158.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 13 14 13 14 15 14 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -9. -10. -14. -18. -19. -20. -15. -12. -11. -6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY