* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/19/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 80 77 72 63 55 44 33 25 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 80 77 72 63 55 44 33 25 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 77 76 74 68 62 55 48 41 35 29 24 SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 6 6 13 12 2 7 2 2 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 31 32 28 35 41 61 28 93 210 174 181 5 297 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.4 23.5 22.6 21.6 21.0 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 133 132 125 117 107 98 88 77 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 70 70 66 63 57 57 52 51 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 21 20 19 17 15 13 10 10 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 20 23 29 22 17 9 27 18 22 11 17 200 MB DIV 52 64 53 44 21 -8 2 -23 -4 15 -11 -21 1 LAND (KM) 687 702 723 752 765 717 751 812 932 1059 1169 1285 1414 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.2 20.8 21.3 22.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.7 110.2 111.0 111.7 113.6 115.4 117.5 119.9 122.1 124.1 126.1 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -28. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -15. -16. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 3. -2. -10. -19. -30. -41. -48. -59. -63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 2. -3. -11. -20. -31. -42. -50. -60. -64. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY