* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 57 56 51 49 45 37 28 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 57 56 51 49 45 37 28 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 58 55 52 47 44 42 40 38 37 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 20 24 30 30 31 25 22 19 23 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 215 214 214 196 205 223 217 227 243 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 21.3 19.5 17.6 15.9 13.1 11.0 12.2 11.1 9.4 9.9 11.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 81 78 76 73 71 71 67 64 64 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 75 73 73 70 70 69 65 62 62 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -53.7 -51.9 -49.8 -46.0 -44.2 -45.5 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 57 59 58 58 58 63 60 59 50 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 19 19 21 20 19 21 21 17 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -6 -5 -15 31 114 131 97 77 80 -78 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 51 57 32 17 18 49 -17 -38 -45 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 743 752 820 947 1130 1393 1062 833 723 613 277 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.1 43.8 45.4 48.0 50.5 55.2 60.3 63.4 64.3 63.9 61.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 44.5 42.6 40.1 37.6 31.5 23.8 16.7 11.2 7.4 4.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 26 30 30 31 28 17 10 11 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 22 CX,CY: 13/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -26. -30. -34. -37. -38. -38. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 23. 25. 23. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -26. -35. -40. -47. -54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -8. -9. -14. -16. -20. -28. -37. -43. -49. -57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY