* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE AL032008 07/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 38 42 46 56 54 45 39 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 38 42 46 56 54 45 39 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 45 47 46 43 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 16 11 11 9 6 8 2 16 22 25 17 6 18 SHEAR DIR 22 41 25 32 24 358 323 238 181 194 219 233 205 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.0 26.4 25.2 23.0 20.4 18.9 17.3 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 122 120 117 115 119 106 91 80 76 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 103 102 100 98 98 101 89 78 72 69 68 66 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -54.8 -55.5 -54.7 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 10 8 7 9 7 7 4 5 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 36 36 38 41 42 50 41 34 40 45 51 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 11 22 20 13 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -86 -95 -98 -88 -67 27 45 35 7 -32 -33 -49 200 MB DIV -23 -32 -20 -20 20 -8 34 20 20 21 53 28 25 LAND (KM) 93 118 101 102 66 136 355 380 354 357 276 254 226 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.9 33.3 33.8 34.3 35.5 37.2 38.4 39.2 40.3 41.4 42.7 44.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 78.1 77.3 76.7 76.1 74.4 71.3 69.1 67.8 65.9 63.7 61.4 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 8 12 13 8 8 10 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 6 4 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 9. 8. 2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 27. 26. 17. 11. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 16. 26. 24. 16. 9. 5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 THREE 07/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 THREE 07/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY