* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 52 61 70 74 76 75 74 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 52 48 45 49 51 50 49 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 41 40 38 46 53 58 62 64 SHEAR (KTS) 15 5 6 9 7 8 2 5 13 13 18 9 12 SHEAR DIR 319 352 228 295 317 194 272 262 341 332 344 333 1 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 27.9 27.7 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 143 143 144 146 136 133 142 145 141 138 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 141 140 139 139 128 123 129 129 123 119 114 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 8 11 8 10 8 10 8 12 9 700-500 MB RH 74 70 68 69 67 71 70 71 70 67 65 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 49 46 40 39 37 23 13 16 14 -11 2 -11 200 MB DIV 57 70 69 5 16 48 22 77 7 54 8 27 -15 LAND (KM) 254 258 310 272 237 188 -59 71 296 458 320 186 45 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.8 23.5 25.1 26.2 27.1 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 79.3 80.7 82.1 83.4 85.7 87.9 89.8 91.3 92.7 94.0 95.2 96.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 78 85 62 69 72 87 9999 3 38 35 44 47 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 32. 41. 45. 47. 46. 45. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 31. 40. 44. 46. 45. 44. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY