* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 20 17 16 16 21 23 26 29 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 20 17 16 16 21 23 26 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 SHEAR (KTS) 8 4 4 6 7 6 8 4 9 6 13 20 26 SHEAR DIR 240 264 228 239 253 198 214 151 196 236 205 193 197 SST (C) 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.8 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 95 97 98 99 100 102 106 110 112 110 111 114 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 38 37 37 37 42 37 41 34 35 33 29 23 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 40 46 56 37 28 -8 -18 -30 -35 -41 -42 200 MB DIV -25 -17 -8 -8 -6 -12 -4 -15 -19 -1 -7 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2009 2120 2208 2079 1951 1685 1384 1138 893 657 476 321 222 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.5 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.7 133.9 135.2 136.4 139.0 142.0 144.5 147.0 149.5 151.8 153.9 155.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 14 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -9. -9. -6. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -9. -7. -4. -1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED