* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 73 69 58 49 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 73 69 58 49 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 82 80 78 70 61 52 44 37 30 25 20 SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 8 12 13 7 5 7 3 4 3 6 8 SHEAR DIR 56 41 36 46 62 109 60 116 196 184 225 275 285 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.8 24.8 23.7 22.9 21.9 21.3 20.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 130 127 121 111 100 91 81 74 70 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 69 67 61 58 53 52 46 42 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 20 19 18 16 15 12 10 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 29 34 27 19 8 21 15 10 0 7 8 200 MB DIV 44 30 34 23 -1 13 -26 -10 -6 -16 -29 -19 -7 LAND (KM) 698 730 765 763 730 713 759 815 956 1069 1222 1353 1462 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.9 19.0 20.0 20.8 21.3 21.6 22.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.4 111.1 111.9 112.6 114.3 116.2 118.3 120.6 122.8 125.0 127.0 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -24. -31. -36. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 2. -1. -9. -17. -31. -42. -52. -62. -70. -75. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -14. -13. -10. -8. -6. -7. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -7. -11. -22. -31. -44. -52. -60. -68. -76. -82. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY