* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/19/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 37 48 57 64 67 67 67 69 69 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 37 48 57 64 67 67 67 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 34 39 43 46 48 50 SHEAR (KTS) 9 13 9 8 11 9 7 12 13 15 8 6 4 SHEAR DIR 46 74 69 59 53 86 345 33 22 39 50 33 351 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.0 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 158 158 158 155 155 157 155 143 136 129 123 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 9 11 6 10 8 11 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 76 72 75 71 70 66 69 69 70 69 69 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 58 52 37 23 9 -11 -16 -25 -6 2 11 14 200 MB DIV 29 28 31 13 18 55 47 48 17 17 26 -4 -17 LAND (KM) 83 102 96 120 181 167 195 209 185 206 226 269 338 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 89.4 90.5 91.6 92.8 93.9 96.3 99.0 101.4 103.3 105.1 106.8 108.0 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 13 12 12 10 10 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 25. 31. 34. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 30. 38. 43. 44. 45. 46. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 28. 37. 44. 47. 47. 47. 49. 49. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/19/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/19/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY