* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * BERTHA AL022008 07/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 57 55 51 49 46 43 36 30 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 57 55 51 49 46 43 36 30 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 58 55 52 48 46 44 41 40 39 39 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 20 19 24 31 29 24 22 28 22 23 24 N/A SHEAR DIR 225 221 234 203 203 202 232 242 237 220 192 216 N/A SST (C) 19.7 17.6 16.4 13.6 10.9 11.8 11.9 8.7 8.2 9.4 11.5 12.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 77 76 74 72 72 71 65 62 65 67 66 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 72 72 72 70 70 68 63 60 63 64 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -51.9 -49.0 -45.8 -44.7 -47.1 -50.8 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 63 60 56 60 53 62 64 55 48 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 16 15 17 22 18 16 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -9 15 66 110 135 99 110 127 -47 -79 N/A 200 MB DIV 59 60 25 23 48 31 -5 -25 -37 -33 34 38 N/A LAND (KM) 765 832 925 1137 1389 1181 946 904 869 722 303 56 N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.7 45.5 47.2 50.0 52.8 57.4 62.8 65.7 66.1 64.9 61.0 58.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.3 42.4 40.5 37.5 34.4 27.8 20.0 13.1 9.0 7.4 7.2 5.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 28 34 32 32 27 14 6 13 15 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 22 CX,CY: 13/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -27. -31. -35. -37. -38. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 25. 27. 25. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. -29. -35. -44. -51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. -29. -35. -44. -51. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING