* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 50 52 53 55 65 60 51 44 38 32 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 50 52 53 55 65 60 51 44 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 52 53 55 58 58 53 46 41 39 37 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 6 8 5 7 5 25 33 29 18 18 29 SHEAR DIR 23 33 26 23 26 58 99 199 189 185 221 243 251 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.1 23.1 16.7 15.0 14.4 12.6 9.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 121 117 115 116 116 94 73 70 70 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 101 98 96 98 99 82 68 67 66 66 65 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 8 8 11 8 8 3 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 40 42 42 42 44 35 40 39 43 41 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 8 7 20 19 14 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -86 -88 -83 -78 -28 5 48 57 36 24 19 9 200 MB DIV -24 -23 -25 4 0 -1 23 14 14 3 37 21 31 LAND (KM) 115 95 103 77 77 171 322 288 239 105 48 53 59 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.3 33.7 34.2 34.6 35.6 37.4 39.3 41.5 43.5 45.3 47.1 48.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 77.5 76.8 76.2 75.6 74.0 71.6 69.1 66.6 63.7 60.3 56.6 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 11 13 14 15 15 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 7. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 25. 21. 13. 6. 0. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 25. 20. 11. 4. -2. -8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY