* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 69 75 78 78 76 73 70 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 45 39 42 42 40 37 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 47 55 42 37 44 49 53 57 37 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 8 3 3 4 5 14 15 19 14 17 10 SHEAR DIR 310 216 263 247 143 268 116 314 344 342 356 329 359 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.7 28.3 28.5 27.9 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 142 144 143 137 133 141 143 135 126 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 138 139 136 129 123 129 128 120 113 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 8 10 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 14 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 67 70 70 74 73 74 71 70 65 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 48 48 47 46 45 52 45 20 23 15 26 27 5 200 MB DIV 68 62 9 23 46 10 78 41 48 19 8 -6 1 LAND (KM) 315 267 188 149 170 105 -143 30 264 413 220 27 -220 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.3 19.6 21.0 22.6 23.8 24.8 25.4 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 81.0 82.2 83.4 84.6 86.6 88.8 90.6 92.2 93.7 95.3 97.1 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 75 15 5 58 71 69 9999 3 41 43 24 2 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 36. 42. 44. 44. 42. 39. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 34. 40. 43. 43. 41. 38. 35. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY