* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 27 26 25 27 32 34 34 37 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 27 26 25 27 32 34 34 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 7 7 3 9 3 9 6 10 19 22 23 SHEAR DIR 263 176 215 246 260 180 179 151 271 283 290 293 306 SST (C) 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.7 24.9 24.8 25.1 25.6 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 100 101 101 103 104 107 112 114 113 116 121 123 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.9 -55.8 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 37 40 39 44 42 40 39 37 38 36 35 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 52 61 52 42 14 -8 -19 -28 -31 -40 -44 200 MB DIV -12 0 -7 -14 -28 -3 4 -20 -9 -7 8 27 2 LAND (KM) 2154 2210 2091 1950 1809 1509 1189 854 551 349 359 539 665 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 132.8 134.0 135.1 136.5 137.9 140.9 144.1 147.5 150.9 154.1 157.3 159.9 162.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 14 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 2. 4. 4. 7. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY