* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 69 65 55 44 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 69 65 55 44 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 73 71 68 61 53 44 37 30 24 20 16 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 7 10 10 8 9 14 6 10 10 9 10 SHEAR DIR 316 33 52 88 126 140 127 171 172 187 264 265 268 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.3 24.1 23.2 22.3 21.2 20.9 21.0 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 129 125 117 104 95 86 74 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 69 62 58 56 53 46 41 37 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 17 16 14 12 10 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 18 13 12 10 7 17 8 26 40 31 26 200 MB DIV 34 42 25 1 -9 -9 -8 15 -17 -8 -2 3 -11 LAND (KM) 692 723 758 722 701 728 780 896 1041 1177 1350 1472 1498 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.4 112.3 113.1 115.2 117.4 119.7 122.2 124.7 127.2 128.9 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -24. -30. -36. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -19. -20. -22. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -3. -6. -14. -26. -39. -53. -62. -72. -76. -78. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -6. -10. -20. -31. -44. -57. -66. -75. -79. -82. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY