* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/19/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 46 53 57 58 57 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 46 53 57 58 57 57 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 45 46 47 48 49 48 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 8 10 15 21 21 17 15 16 15 14 15 SHEAR DIR 73 77 70 45 43 66 53 50 58 44 65 76 89 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 157 155 153 155 154 150 141 136 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 72 75 70 72 69 68 70 71 70 73 68 65 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 51 37 25 17 6 -18 -18 -20 4 -6 19 0 200 MB DIV 47 37 15 19 37 62 17 19 20 5 2 6 -6 LAND (KM) 140 141 158 236 259 228 258 271 266 277 314 369 460 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 16.8 16.8 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.7 92.8 94.1 95.4 97.9 100.2 102.1 103.8 105.2 106.3 107.2 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 5 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 24. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 28. 32. 33. 32. 32. 32. 32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/19/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED