* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * BERTHA AL022008 07/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 54 52 49 46 43 42 30 24 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 54 52 49 46 43 42 30 24 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 53 51 48 45 42 39 37 35 36 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 20 30 28 32 32 26 13 13 20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 222 207 198 198 218 223 215 197 237 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 17.9 16.4 14.4 11.1 11.1 12.3 10.8 7.8 9.1 10.0 11.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 76 74 73 72 72 69 65 62 65 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 72 71 71 70 69 67 63 60 63 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.1 -50.3 -46.6 -45.5 -47.1 -50.2 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 60 58 55 54 56 56 58 54 51 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 21 21 19 17 18 24 16 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -11 -1 44 86 120 110 67 60 -17 -98 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 30 23 44 50 27 -40 -76 -50 -62 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 839 953 1111 1381 1355 1046 873 936 955 840 459 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.3 47.4 49.4 52.3 55.1 59.4 64.1 66.7 67.1 66.0 62.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.4 40.1 37.8 34.4 30.9 23.9 16.5 9.2 4.8 2.9 2.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 31 35 32 29 24 14 6 12 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 21 CX,CY: 13/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -20. -25. -28. -31. -33. -34. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 26. 23. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 4. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. 3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -30. -36. -40. -47. -54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -30. -36. -40. -47. -54. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/20/08 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING