* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 53 52 50 45 39 32 25 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 53 52 50 44 36 29 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 49 50 53 56 52 47 41 35 34 34 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 7 6 8 2 12 27 42 41 44 44 42 SHEAR DIR 24 30 25 27 29 305 238 228 235 248 280 294 305 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.3 23.1 15.4 15.3 12.9 8.9 10.3 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 119 115 114 118 95 72 72 69 66 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 99 97 96 102 85 69 69 67 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -55.6 -56.3 -57.0 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 10 10 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 41 43 44 45 43 45 49 49 56 43 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 9 9 8 7 9 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -85 -70 -62 -58 -20 31 83 24 10 -71 -72 -67 200 MB DIV -9 -21 0 13 9 -1 42 24 24 11 -36 -32 -40 LAND (KM) 90 87 78 70 99 268 271 173 15 50 24 401 796 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.7 34.1 34.7 35.2 36.7 39.3 42.0 44.8 47.2 49.2 51.1 52.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.1 76.4 75.7 74.9 72.8 69.7 66.1 62.1 57.8 53.2 48.6 43.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 14 19 20 20 19 18 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 7. 0. -6. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 12. 10. 5. -1. -8. -15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY