* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 62 70 75 78 79 77 74 72 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 51 35 41 44 45 43 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 48 34 39 46 52 57 52 34 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 6 3 5 3 3 10 12 16 13 18 3 SHEAR DIR 222 281 336 129 221 4 221 334 319 334 319 1 10 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 142 144 146 140 134 135 142 140 132 128 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 137 139 140 132 125 124 128 125 118 116 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 10 10 7 9 6 10 8 11 10 14 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 72 74 75 77 73 71 73 72 71 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 14 16 15 15 13 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 40 40 44 35 27 14 25 30 42 43 57 200 MB DIV 56 9 39 63 67 28 50 2 49 7 45 4 41 LAND (KM) 250 187 143 170 208 -27 -79 126 334 336 165 -41 -316 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.8 20.2 21.5 22.8 23.7 24.3 24.5 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.3 83.5 84.6 85.7 87.8 89.7 91.4 92.9 94.5 96.1 98.2 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 59 71 75 9999 9999 8 48 29 20 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 28. 37. 41. 44. 45. 43. 40. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 35. 40. 43. 44. 42. 39. 37. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY