* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 70 65 58 46 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 70 65 58 46 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 70 67 63 56 48 40 33 27 22 18 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 6 7 5 2 9 8 2 8 8 9 13 SHEAR DIR 36 76 115 134 142 143 137 178 213 234 239 258 257 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.7 24.7 23.4 22.9 22.0 21.1 20.7 20.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 127 123 121 111 97 91 82 72 68 68 70 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 67 63 63 56 55 50 45 44 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 19 16 15 13 10 7 7 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 24 19 14 15 21 30 18 26 35 25 23 200 MB DIV 43 23 12 0 -3 -8 0 -10 -22 -7 0 4 -8 LAND (KM) 702 725 691 669 664 729 793 934 1031 1132 1252 1379 1446 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.2 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.2 23.2 23.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.4 112.1 113.0 113.8 116.0 118.3 120.4 122.4 124.4 126.4 128.1 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -28. -34. -40. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -17. -22. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -28. -42. -54. -62. -73. -78. -80. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -10. -17. -29. -43. -55. -64. -75. -79. -81. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY