* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/20/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 36 40 50 60 64 66 68 67 67 64 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 36 40 50 60 64 66 68 67 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 44 47 51 55 58 58 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 10 19 20 17 14 13 12 9 15 16 25 SHEAR DIR 76 76 60 61 73 65 47 34 64 75 59 94 92 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 155 154 153 154 155 153 148 140 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 10 7 10 7 11 9 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 68 67 65 70 70 67 70 64 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 4 4 6 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 45 39 29 20 -9 -6 -24 0 22 27 32 20 200 MB DIV 40 9 20 32 46 11 24 13 29 9 11 -7 29 LAND (KM) 152 160 199 265 239 239 245 240 255 256 303 388 461 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.0 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.7 93.6 94.7 95.7 97.9 99.9 101.4 102.8 104.0 105.2 106.2 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 32. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 19. 29. 34. 38. 41. 40. 39. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 11. 15. 25. 35. 39. 41. 43. 42. 42. 39. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED