* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * BERTHA AL022008 07/20/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 54 51 50 48 48 38 35 33 29 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 54 51 50 48 48 38 35 33 29 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 53 51 49 45 42 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 23 26 29 33 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 204 195 190 201 203 217 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.3 13.7 11.2 11.0 11.8 12.2 8.8 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 73 72 72 72 71 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 70 70 70 70 68 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.0 -53.5 -52.5 -51.7 -48.6 -45.9 -45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 53 53 57 55 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 20 20 20 25 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 10 54 89 106 142 119 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 13 30 27 45 14 -47 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 958 1147 1363 1384 1209 986 934 1103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.6 49.9 52.2 55.0 57.8 62.1 65.7 68.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.0 37.3 34.6 31.4 28.1 21.5 14.3 6.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 31 34 31 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 25 CX,CY: 14/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -26. -29. -30. -32. -33. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 26. 22. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -22. -25. -27. -31. -38. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -22. -25. -27. -31. -38. -45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/20/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/20/08 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING