* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/20/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 40 41 44 46 48 46 42 38 34 26 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 40 41 44 46 48 42 34 33 28 21 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 43 47 49 47 40 32 33 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 6 7 1 3 20 29 57 55 48 45 36 SHEAR DIR 16 25 33 29 26 211 225 216 247 263 284 292 305 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.8 20.2 14.0 15.1 10.4 8.0 9.7 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 116 114 115 114 83 71 72 67 66 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 97 96 98 99 76 68 69 65 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -56.2 -57.2 -57.2 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 11 11 8 10 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 36 39 39 44 49 47 49 53 55 47 41 40 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -65 -58 -51 -17 13 80 91 17 -67 -93 -67 -57 200 MB DIV -10 4 0 10 7 28 42 46 -11 3 -17 -9 -20 LAND (KM) 63 73 56 77 143 301 228 58 27 -44 179 505 852 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.1 34.5 35.2 35.9 37.7 40.3 43.2 46.7 49.4 51.5 53.4 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.4 76.7 76.0 75.2 74.3 71.7 68.4 64.9 61.3 57.3 52.9 48.3 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 12 16 19 21 20 18 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY