* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/20/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 40 43 47 56 62 69 73 77 74 74 71 V (KT) LAND 35 36 40 43 47 34 37 43 48 52 44 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 33 36 42 50 56 62 36 30 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 2 8 5 1 6 8 12 11 21 14 15 SHEAR DIR 282 303 115 208 335 78 298 353 332 321 328 326 301 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 145 146 143 139 136 141 140 132 126 131 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 140 140 137 131 126 130 126 117 112 117 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 11 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 14 12 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 74 74 76 73 73 67 72 68 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 14 13 13 12 12 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 40 40 36 28 7 25 8 28 24 29 41 200 MB DIV -2 28 55 49 29 56 0 36 46 18 9 35 51 LAND (KM) 198 155 180 194 67 -128 92 319 316 159 -13 -215 -442 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 19.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 24.2 25.0 25.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 83.5 84.7 85.9 87.0 89.4 91.3 93.2 94.7 96.2 97.7 99.6 101.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 60 73 73 67 9999 2 38 36 22 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 23. 29. 35. 39. 43. 40. 40. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 27. 34. 38. 42. 39. 39. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/20/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/20/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY