* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/20/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 67 62 50 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 67 62 50 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 72 68 64 55 45 36 29 23 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 4 5 9 3 7 6 11 8 11 5 12 SHEAR DIR 40 105 158 149 175 158 191 228 222 225 242 265 254 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.0 23.7 22.5 21.9 21.1 20.7 20.6 20.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 122 118 113 100 87 81 72 68 66 67 69 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 70 65 63 63 58 53 52 46 44 40 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 17 16 14 11 8 7 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 25 19 20 11 24 22 22 17 20 9 7 200 MB DIV 24 1 -5 -10 -7 -19 -5 -4 -19 -7 -11 -1 -12 LAND (KM) 691 649 622 630 660 695 782 882 1006 1125 1235 1338 1411 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 20.2 21.4 22.1 22.6 23.2 24.2 24.7 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.1 112.9 113.9 114.9 116.9 119.0 121.1 123.2 125.0 126.7 128.2 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -27. -35. -42. -46. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -16. -19. -21. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -5. -9. -20. -34. -49. -61. -72. -80. -86. -89. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -8. -13. -25. -40. -55. -65. -76. -83. -89. -92. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY