* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/20/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 48 59 63 67 70 71 70 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 48 59 63 67 70 71 70 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 43 48 51 52 51 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 20 17 14 12 11 8 7 3 9 10 15 SHEAR DIR 67 66 66 66 73 64 43 47 84 125 167 165 141 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 153 153 155 154 147 139 132 125 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 11 9 8 9 10 9 9 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 65 68 67 70 67 71 69 66 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 8 8 8 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 24 23 24 4 -7 -9 20 6 23 18 26 200 MB DIV 28 30 44 71 47 18 61 32 28 17 1 -1 16 LAND (KM) 199 262 228 220 231 277 305 306 324 375 452 459 418 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.6 95.7 96.9 98.1 100.4 102.4 104.4 106.3 108.0 109.4 110.6 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 10 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 10. 14. 22. 34. 39. 44. 46. 44. 44. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 10. 15. 23. 34. 38. 42. 45. 46. 45. 40. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED