* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * BERTHA AL022008 07/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 47 46 44 42 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 47 46 44 42 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 48 46 43 40 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 29 29 27 26 17 19 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 196 196 194 216 230 202 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.4 11.0 11.0 11.8 12.1 9.9 6.7 8.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 73 71 72 73 72 69 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 70 70 71 69 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -51.5 -50.4 -49.4 -46.2 -44.3 -44.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 51 52 57 55 57 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 18 17 18 22 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 62 100 109 120 140 106 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 31 24 37 41 -31 -91 -87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1169 1400 1380 1188 1086 976 1191 1422 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 50.0 52.6 55.1 57.9 60.7 64.9 68.8 71.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.0 34.2 31.3 27.7 24.1 17.7 11.7 4.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 31 32 34 30 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 31 CX,CY: 18/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -19. -23. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 29. 27. 23. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. 0. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -27. -30. -33. -38. -45. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -27. -30. -33. -38. -45. -53. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/20/08 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING