* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 49 52 54 52 47 39 42 37 29 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 49 52 54 44 38 33 36 32 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 50 51 54 53 41 39 34 33 34 38 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 9 5 1 20 31 48 65 64 25 27 23 SHEAR DIR 13 25 18 34 351 246 230 230 242 278 288 306 335 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.2 24.7 16.3 15.3 11.9 8.2 9.6 9.2 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 114 114 117 105 74 73 70 67 67 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 96 96 97 100 92 70 70 67 66 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -54.0 -56.3 -58.1 -57.3 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 11 11 9 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 39 45 47 43 43 43 47 39 39 40 44 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 12 14 13 10 4 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -60 -42 -15 0 39 101 70 24 -59 -70 -83 1 200 MB DIV 1 1 4 6 25 14 27 19 -15 -48 -52 -31 -21 LAND (KM) 73 52 71 144 223 305 245 -40 -3 126 498 867 1244 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.6 35.0 35.7 36.4 38.5 41.7 45.0 48.6 51.4 53.5 55.2 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 76.0 75.3 74.3 73.3 70.5 67.3 63.3 58.6 53.7 48.4 43.0 37.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 17 21 23 23 20 19 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 14. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -6. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 8. 2. -7. -4. -8. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 2. -6. -3. -8. -16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY