* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 55 62 68 74 79 81 78 78 76 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 38 38 43 49 55 57 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 39 36 42 49 57 64 40 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 7 3 7 4 11 5 2 6 14 5 5 SHEAR DIR 274 171 205 302 62 165 2 284 280 305 355 298 84 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.2 27.4 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 145 139 136 135 141 141 133 125 128 137 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 140 132 128 126 130 126 117 110 114 123 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 7 10 6 10 7 13 10 14 9 700-500 MB RH 68 71 73 72 73 73 72 69 70 67 67 70 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 12 13 14 14 13 14 13 11 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 17 15 1 9 24 30 22 50 49 53 56 200 MB DIV 23 34 46 36 41 57 22 80 18 39 14 54 36 LAND (KM) 244 278 148 11 -125 50 295 336 173 17 -144 -341 -327 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.8 21.0 22.3 23.7 24.6 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.8 86.1 87.4 88.6 90.8 92.8 94.5 95.9 97.3 99.0 101.1 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 74 90 78 27 9999 4 41 28 20 2 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 36. 40. 42. 39. 39. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 28. 34. 39. 41. 38. 38. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY