* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 71 65 59 42 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 71 65 59 42 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 70 66 61 50 40 32 25 20 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 9 8 11 3 13 6 5 7 10 16 16 17 SHEAR DIR 171 148 142 171 151 188 249 181 269 292 294 303 297 SST (C) 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.1 22.9 22.4 21.6 21.1 20.9 20.9 21.1 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 115 110 104 91 86 77 72 70 69 71 72 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 64 61 61 58 50 47 44 42 42 37 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 15 13 11 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 23 19 13 18 32 32 24 28 14 10 -13 200 MB DIV 8 -13 -21 -9 -32 -12 -14 -20 -13 -30 0 -13 -16 LAND (KM) 621 607 615 652 660 751 884 970 1078 1212 1378 1503 1573 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.6 22.7 23.0 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.2 114.1 115.1 116.1 118.3 120.4 122.2 123.9 125.6 127.5 129.0 130.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -24. -32. -40. -45. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -16. -19. -19. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -10. -16. -32. -47. -60. -72. -80. -87. -91. -93. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -10. -16. -33. -48. -61. -73. -81. -88. -92. -94. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY