* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 54 63 68 71 69 70 64 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 54 63 68 71 69 70 64 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 42 44 44 41 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 17 20 16 14 12 8 11 1 14 11 19 19 SHEAR DIR 67 76 65 77 66 46 14 359 235 231 223 197 181 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.8 25.8 24.9 24.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 152 153 152 147 139 132 122 112 104 92 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 7 10 9 10 8 7 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 67 64 67 67 63 71 68 68 72 69 68 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 7 8 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 27 18 20 22 3 0 -20 9 8 -2 12 11 18 200 MB DIV 41 51 64 38 34 46 46 9 16 3 -13 -4 4 LAND (KM) 290 270 281 292 329 365 350 354 397 434 403 489 558 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.3 15.3 16.5 17.8 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.6 97.8 99.0 100.2 102.4 104.5 106.5 108.4 110.3 112.2 114.3 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 13. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 10. 15. 28. 38. 43. 47. 45. 45. 39. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 29. 38. 43. 46. 44. 45. 39. 34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY