* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 40 41 42 40 38 37 34 29 22 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 40 41 42 36 33 33 29 24 18 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 40 41 44 42 37 33 31 33 37 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 3 5 3 19 45 70 59 22 24 22 N/A SHEAR DIR 47 39 34 277 211 240 247 260 268 320 309 293 N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.0 20.2 15.0 12.9 8.6 10.5 10.2 10.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 114 117 116 84 73 70 67 68 68 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 97 100 101 78 70 68 66 66 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -55.4 -55.8 -50.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 43 45 40 40 43 47 48 42 35 41 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 10 10 12 11 12 12 8 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -35 -26 0 22 55 54 13 9 6 -17 71 N/A 200 MB DIV 2 1 -2 25 20 18 19 -11 -55 -50 -52 -14 N/A LAND (KM) 49 75 144 245 301 241 19 21 65 496 908 1340 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.1 35.7 36.6 37.5 40.3 44.4 47.4 49.9 52.1 53.7 55.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.1 75.2 74.3 73.1 71.8 68.2 63.4 58.7 53.4 48.0 42.2 35.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 17 24 24 22 21 20 20 21 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 47/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 15. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY