* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 57 65 73 79 83 80 77 71 66 V (KT) LAND 40 44 42 36 40 48 56 62 66 63 48 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 35 38 44 51 60 69 74 57 37 30 SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 2 8 8 3 0 3 6 22 16 23 13 SHEAR DIR 228 213 273 96 126 23 110 340 337 330 345 339 17 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 139 135 135 141 139 136 132 127 125 127 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 135 129 127 128 124 119 114 110 108 110 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 8 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 72 70 69 70 69 74 64 65 64 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 12 14 14 14 16 15 15 12 11 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 20 4 14 18 34 31 46 21 25 15 8 200 MB DIV 37 41 43 36 49 32 78 58 46 -10 3 16 29 LAND (KM) 304 151 -16 -61 54 295 336 255 173 64 -36 -157 -297 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.0 26.5 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 86.0 87.5 89.1 90.6 92.8 94.3 95.3 95.9 96.7 97.6 98.9 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 13 10 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 73 83 1 9999 4 41 43 25 20 10 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 33. 40. 45. 42. 39. 34. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 33. 39. 43. 40. 37. 31. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY