* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 75 69 60 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 75 69 60 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 75 69 62 49 39 31 24 19 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 11 5 12 12 5 11 8 11 16 20 23 SHEAR DIR 168 158 181 211 184 233 227 239 278 271 292 290 283 SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.7 22.3 21.6 21.2 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 114 110 104 97 89 84 77 73 69 70 74 77 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 62 55 52 48 42 39 38 33 32 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 13 12 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 19 9 7 28 26 17 23 26 14 15 6 200 MB DIV -7 -10 4 -34 -34 -18 -23 -12 -27 0 -29 -3 -12 LAND (KM) 583 581 602 632 670 817 917 1039 1177 1305 1438 1596 1701 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.9 117.0 119.2 121.0 122.9 124.7 126.4 128.1 129.9 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -21. -30. -39. -46. -52. -56. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -19. -37. -53. -67. -78. -86. -94. -99.-102. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -5. -11. -20. -39. -54. -69. -79. -88. -96.-100.-103. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY