* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 42 50 59 67 67 68 71 67 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 42 50 59 67 67 68 71 67 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 39 36 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 20 18 16 17 12 5 6 5 10 4 18 SHEAR DIR 59 60 66 56 62 43 30 84 315 147 211 144 163 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.1 25.2 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 150 150 146 138 133 124 115 106 96 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 69 70 72 70 67 68 65 59 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 9 12 11 13 15 13 13 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 24 15 17 -1 6 34 8 8 11 14 23 200 MB DIV 56 67 32 61 66 56 29 20 12 -7 3 1 -20 LAND (KM) 366 370 379 391 422 444 414 403 443 511 435 457 469 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.7 14.8 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.4 20.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.3 98.4 99.6 100.7 102.8 104.8 106.7 108.5 110.2 111.9 113.6 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 12. 9. 10. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 16. 24. 34. 42. 43. 44. 45. 42. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 34. 42. 42. 43. 46. 42. 36. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY