* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/21/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 47 45 41 35 33 31 27 21 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 47 45 37 33 31 29 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 50 48 44 34 33 31 33 38 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 2 5 14 32 42 66 50 29 13 28 N/A SHEAR DIR 42 56 300 238 231 241 246 264 287 309 327 300 N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.3 25.9 24.0 15.8 14.9 11.8 9.2 11.2 10.7 10.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 118 116 101 74 73 69 67 68 68 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 102 101 90 70 69 67 66 66 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -56.0 -57.8 -56.5 -51.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 8 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 43 41 43 47 51 49 42 45 49 60 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 8 7 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -24 3 23 24 47 26 -27 -53 -83 4 113 N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 19 22 11 19 21 -21 -57 -55 -31 0 N/A LAND (KM) 70 149 242 318 288 180 7 -37 194 607 1010 1409 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.6 36.3 37.6 38.9 41.9 45.2 47.9 50.1 52.0 53.4 55.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.4 74.3 73.1 71.6 70.0 65.9 61.1 56.3 51.1 46.0 40.5 34.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 15 18 20 23 23 21 19 18 19 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. 15. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -11. -13. -17. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -12. -14. -18. -24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY