* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/21/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 64 70 76 79 80 78 72 65 61 V (KT) LAND 45 49 43 45 49 55 61 64 66 47 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 42 42 46 52 60 67 72 53 35 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 5 5 2 6 8 6 8 16 21 16 24 16 SHEAR DIR 217 271 46 97 223 1 282 347 314 353 333 19 19 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 136 135 137 144 139 134 127 124 128 134 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 135 129 128 128 130 123 117 111 107 111 115 119 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.4 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 -51.5 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 10 7 11 8 12 10 15 11 14 700-500 MB RH 75 73 75 74 72 71 71 70 66 67 66 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 15 15 16 15 15 14 15 10 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 10 10 2 17 28 33 40 32 26 3 -9 200 MB DIV 40 42 53 48 41 22 88 29 46 -9 34 -17 20 LAND (KM) 225 78 -76 26 143 377 339 201 73 -68 -203 -312 -425 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.3 24.0 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.6 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.6 87.9 89.4 90.8 93.0 94.4 95.6 96.7 98.0 99.3 100.5 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 13 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 69 9999 0 8 49 27 19 13 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 36. 30. 23. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 25. 31. 34. 35. 33. 27. 20. 16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/21/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/21/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY