* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/21/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 73 64 54 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 78 73 64 54 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 72 65 58 45 35 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 9 8 12 15 10 6 7 6 10 11 16 23 SHEAR DIR 152 161 189 188 196 229 201 255 262 279 267 277 277 SST (C) 25.0 24.5 23.8 23.2 22.8 22.5 21.9 21.3 21.0 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 101 95 90 86 80 73 70 70 73 75 79 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 55 47 48 42 40 37 32 28 27 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 18 13 18 33 32 24 34 32 34 28 34 200 MB DIV -2 9 -23 -46 -35 -6 -19 -6 -3 2 -20 -5 -19 LAND (KM) 576 623 631 685 755 878 986 1096 1218 1357 1521 1642 1745 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.2 117.4 118.5 120.2 122.1 123.8 125.4 127.1 129.1 130.9 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -15. -26. -35. -44. -51. -56. -59. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -16. -26. -44. -59. -73. -82. -89. -95. -99.-101. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -7. -16. -26. -44. -59. -73. -82. -90. -96. -99.-102. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY