* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/21/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 39 45 53 60 61 63 63 62 61 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 39 45 53 60 61 63 63 62 61 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 38 38 37 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 17 13 15 16 13 5 0 1 12 6 11 SHEAR DIR 57 58 63 78 40 38 60 79 36 96 165 155 120 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 151 149 140 135 129 124 119 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 8 9 8 9 8 8 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 72 68 69 72 73 74 74 67 69 60 59 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 11 12 12 13 10 10 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 3 9 5 -7 18 12 16 14 19 12 5 200 MB DIV 72 47 72 96 87 25 31 18 9 -17 -7 -2 -27 LAND (KM) 372 365 373 396 420 420 417 421 494 548 545 619 728 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.5 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.6 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.5 99.6 100.7 101.8 104.0 106.0 107.7 109.3 110.6 112.1 113.8 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 16. 24. 31. 33. 36. 37. 36. 34. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 14. 20. 28. 35. 36. 38. 38. 37. 36. 31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/21/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/21/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED