* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/21/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 49 47 42 34 30 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 49 47 42 34 30 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 51 52 47 41 35 31 28 28 28 30 SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 6 14 23 34 43 45 24 31 35 40 53 SHEAR DIR 104 259 242 243 238 242 249 258 280 306 320 353 330 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.0 24.2 20.5 14.8 14.1 12.9 12.9 11.9 11.1 11.8 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 114 117 116 102 84 72 69 66 66 66 66 67 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 101 101 91 77 69 66 63 63 63 64 65 67 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.8 -56.4 -57.0 -57.8 -58.0 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 43 45 49 53 51 42 44 48 48 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 13 14 12 9 9 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -1 10 36 36 41 2 -38 -117 -124 -87 -105 -20 200 MB DIV -4 17 19 10 29 31 -6 -13 -50 -32 -55 -48 -48 LAND (KM) 118 223 289 286 230 105 59 94 134 189 393 613 939 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.5 37.4 38.8 40.2 43.2 45.5 46.1 45.5 45.7 46.5 47.7 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.6 73.3 72.0 70.3 68.5 64.1 59.6 56.3 53.9 51.1 47.9 44.6 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 17 20 21 21 15 10 9 11 12 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -9. -14. -20. -27. -35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -11. -15. -21. -28. -37. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY