* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/21/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 74 64 53 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 82 74 64 53 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 82 75 67 58 44 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 13 14 15 8 11 5 11 10 13 18 27 SHEAR DIR 176 189 180 195 200 225 248 290 266 280 258 242 244 SST (C) 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.8 22.4 21.9 21.2 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 95 90 86 80 73 66 65 64 64 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 55 51 50 46 45 44 39 37 37 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 10 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 14 10 30 28 26 16 25 17 4 -11 -20 200 MB DIV 19 -20 -38 -29 1 -8 -17 -11 -10 -7 -1 -10 2 LAND (KM) 606 606 625 682 753 861 935 1034 1141 1231 1245 1260 1296 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.1 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.8 116.7 117.8 118.8 120.8 122.4 124.1 125.7 126.9 127.7 129.0 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -13. -19. -32. -43. -53. -61. -66. -69. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -20. -30. -51. -69. -84. -96.-104.-111.-114.-120. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -11. -21. -32. -54. -72. -87. -99.-106.-112.-116.-121. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 14 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY