* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 07/21/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 47 54 58 60 57 56 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 47 54 58 60 57 56 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 34 37 38 38 36 34 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 13 11 15 13 8 4 11 13 17 13 17 SHEAR DIR 59 64 82 48 24 44 66 191 192 169 168 148 138 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 151 150 144 137 132 128 124 122 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 8 8 9 8 6 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 70 73 73 76 70 71 64 63 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 11 12 11 11 9 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -5 4 9 0 2 12 0 12 -1 9 9 21 200 MB DIV 46 64 83 76 60 59 32 19 16 -1 23 -4 6 LAND (KM) 350 367 394 420 450 458 482 575 658 696 798 930 1067 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.8 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.8 101.0 102.2 103.3 105.6 107.6 109.5 111.3 113.2 115.4 117.7 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 9 9 10 11 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 2. 3. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 22. 30. 34. 36. 33. 31. 27. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 32. 31. 28. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 07/21/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912008 INVEST 07/21/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY