* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 59 58 56 52 46 39 33 27 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 59 58 56 52 46 39 33 27 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 63 60 52 44 38 34 32 33 34 36 SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 10 19 25 25 34 23 23 43 40 46 38 SHEAR DIR 301 265 252 244 242 238 244 274 293 316 303 352 319 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.2 23.4 19.4 17.2 15.6 14.5 14.8 17.5 19.3 17.8 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 118 98 80 75 71 70 71 75 80 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 103 87 74 70 67 67 67 70 73 71 68 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.7 -56.4 -56.9 -58.5 -56.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 42 44 45 46 52 51 46 39 41 46 46 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 11 12 10 8 7 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 17 39 48 71 18 -23 -82 -119 -85 -22 9 106 200 MB DIV 10 29 0 22 43 33 13 -29 -16 -35 -35 -28 -18 LAND (KM) 235 310 343 276 300 140 164 194 370 680 997 1323 1430 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 37.2 38.1 39.6 41.0 43.4 44.7 45.0 44.6 44.9 45.8 47.2 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.2 71.9 70.6 68.8 66.9 62.8 58.9 54.3 49.4 44.7 40.0 35.2 30.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 17 20 20 17 16 17 17 17 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. -7. -14. -21. -26. -32. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY