* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 57 64 68 71 73 76 75 74 70 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 57 64 68 58 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 61 67 61 38 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 2 7 5 4 5 2 13 8 15 12 17 SHEAR DIR 73 89 205 314 14 241 20 293 23 326 353 304 29 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 151 156 155 145 136 130 132 139 141 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 141 144 141 128 119 113 115 119 120 120 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 8 7 11 8 13 11 15 11 14 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 66 68 66 68 68 69 68 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 9 9 8 7 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 1 3 8 38 48 62 48 39 33 19 -9 200 MB DIV 34 51 57 41 36 59 33 38 19 47 12 9 -4 LAND (KM) 19 121 229 344 408 237 104 -28 -179 -310 -413 -493 -502 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.7 90.1 91.4 92.6 93.8 95.3 96.5 97.7 99.1 100.4 101.5 102.3 102.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 6 37 46 43 19 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 30. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 30. 29. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY