* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 54 44 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 63 54 44 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 58 52 47 37 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 10 12 6 7 8 5 12 12 15 25 37 SHEAR DIR 185 182 176 198 218 210 252 273 276 268 264 256 256 SST (C) 24.4 23.8 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.1 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 101 96 91 88 82 77 76 75 75 76 75 74 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 53 49 48 46 43 41 39 37 34 35 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 19 35 37 35 26 38 22 26 -5 -11 -67 200 MB DIV -13 -34 -30 2 -2 -16 -7 -5 -8 -19 3 -13 -3 LAND (KM) 655 693 745 813 860 940 1035 1151 1276 1359 1369 1412 1475 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.7 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.3 118.3 119.4 120.4 122.1 123.7 125.4 127.1 128.4 129.2 130.8 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 9 8 8 9 7 5 6 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -33. -40. -45. -49. -51. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -22. -30. -46. -59. -70. -78. -83. -89. -92. -98. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -16. -26. -35. -52. -65. -77. -83. -88. -92. -95.-101. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY