* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT EP082008 07/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 50 59 69 72 75 70 71 65 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 50 59 69 72 75 70 71 65 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 43 47 50 50 48 44 39 33 SHEAR (KTS) 14 7 11 11 10 8 1 6 10 15 8 12 11 SHEAR DIR 62 74 48 27 21 35 218 217 199 183 173 165 159 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.6 25.0 23.9 22.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 148 140 133 126 120 114 102 90 84 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 8 8 10 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 66 72 72 70 72 73 68 70 61 56 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 10 13 14 16 16 18 17 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -9 2 8 0 -5 9 2 2 6 9 22 53 67 200 MB DIV 60 66 68 56 56 32 35 9 17 2 7 16 -4 LAND (KM) 369 385 401 414 400 423 449 546 519 596 655 789 903 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.8 17.0 18.0 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.2 101.3 102.3 103.3 104.3 106.5 108.4 110.5 112.4 114.7 116.9 119.2 121.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 5. 6. 10. 11. 14. 13. 17. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 30. 40. 44. 47. 41. 41. 35. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 20. 29. 39. 43. 45. 40. 41. 35. 30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 EIGHT 07/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 EIGHT 07/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY