* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 57 54 49 40 34 30 26 21 17 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 57 54 49 40 34 30 26 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 58 55 48 41 35 32 31 32 34 35 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 11 18 24 31 32 32 40 34 30 28 21 SHEAR DIR 358 286 226 232 245 252 260 281 285 282 277 261 283 SST (C) 27.0 26.5 25.1 21.3 17.7 16.6 14.8 13.7 19.5 21.4 23.3 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 109 87 76 74 71 71 81 85 94 97 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 103 95 80 71 69 68 68 74 76 81 82 80 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 -56.0 -56.9 -57.0 -56.3 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 45 46 51 49 40 40 38 39 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 13 13 11 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 24 36 51 67 40 -17 -60 -111 -61 -33 -39 -46 -59 200 MB DIV 13 8 22 34 24 6 -7 -39 -37 -10 -28 -34 -25 LAND (KM) 324 369 329 288 189 105 194 268 759 1116 1330 1543 1610 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.8 38.8 40.3 41.8 44.1 45.2 45.1 44.1 42.1 39.5 37.8 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 70.7 69.4 67.5 65.6 61.5 56.5 50.5 44.1 40.6 40.0 38.7 38.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 18 21 20 19 20 22 19 14 11 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -5. -13. -19. -23. -27. -32. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -15. -21. -25. -29. -34. -38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY