* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 58 63 67 67 69 69 67 65 62 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 58 63 67 42 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 59 65 42 31 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 6 2 0 10 1 16 11 21 10 18 16 SHEAR DIR 121 195 263 354 81 293 62 355 1 342 7 1 66 SST (C) 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 159 155 149 139 131 130 134 140 146 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 146 138 132 121 112 111 113 119 123 125 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 6 10 9 11 11 13 12 13 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 66 63 63 67 62 65 59 64 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 14 13 10 9 7 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -8 -11 1 9 25 19 16 11 6 -2 -23 200 MB DIV 48 53 35 30 40 29 30 15 23 15 33 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 205 317 450 358 259 123 15 -79 -168 -267 -382 -474 -492 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.2 26.1 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 90.4 91.7 93.0 93.9 94.7 96.0 97.2 98.2 99.1 100.1 101.2 102.1 102.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 57 52 47 46 46 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 23. 23. 25. 26. 24. 22. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 22. 22. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY